Trans-Saharan gas pipeline revival raises questions over Europe’s future energy supply

The pipeline has spent years moving in and out of political discussions without making significant progress. Agreements were signed, deadlines announced and then postponed. Now, following an improvement in relations between Algeria and Niger, the project has returned to the agenda of all three participating countries.

For European markets, the question is less about the construction itself and more about what the project could mean if it is eventually completed.

The planned route would stretch for more than 4,000 kilometres, linking Nigeria's vast gas reserves with Algeria's export network. Gas could then reach southern Europe through existing connections across the Mediterranean, primarily toward Spain and Italy.

At full capacity, the pipeline is expected to carry around 30 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually. While that would not radically transform Europe's supply structure on its own, it would add another sizeable source of pipeline gas at a time when the continent continues to look for alternatives to Russian energy.

The project has gained renewed relevance since the war in Ukraine altered Europe's gas purchasing strategy. In recent years, EU countries have expanded LNG imports and sought new suppliers across Africa, the Middle East and North America. Additional Nigerian volumes could fit into that broader diversification effort.

Some analysts see another potential effect. More gas arriving through Algeria could increase competition among suppliers serving Europe, particularly in the Mediterranean region. Greater supply options often translate into stronger bargaining positions for buyers, although much would depend on future demand levels and market conditions.

Algeria could emerge as one of the main beneficiaries. The country already occupies an important place in Europe's energy system, and access to Nigerian gas would strengthen its role as a transit and export hub. For Nigeria, the project would open a new route to European customers beyond existing LNG exports.

The timing is also notable. Concerns over energy security remain elevated across Europe, while instability in several parts of the world has highlighted the vulnerability of global supply chains. In that environment, projects connecting Europe to nearby producing regions have attracted renewed political interest.

Yet the obstacles that delayed the pipeline for years have not disappeared.

Large sections still need to be built, including stretches crossing remote desert areas. Security remains a concern in parts of both Nigeria and Niger, where armed groups continue to operate. Financing is another unresolved issue. Cost estimates have risen substantially since the project was first proposed, with some industry specialists now suggesting the total bill could approach $20 billion.

The Trans-Saharan route is also entering a race against time. Morocco is promoting a separate gas corridor linking Nigeria to Europe through the Atlantic coast of West Africa. Although that project faces its own technical and financial challenges, both initiatives are ultimately targeting the same European market.

Whether Europe eventually receives gas through one route, both routes or neither remains uncertain. Energy demand can change quickly, and long-term infrastructure projects often face shifting economic realities. Gas prices that make sense today may look very different several years from now.

Still, the restart of construction has pushed the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline back into discussions about Europe's future energy balance. After years of delays, the project is no longer being viewed solely as an African infrastructure plan. Increasingly, it is being assessed through the lens of what it could mean for European supply security, competition and access to new sources of gas in the decade ahead.