US rethinks global order as shifting doctrine strains transatlantic ties

For the last ten years, Donald Trump’s political career has rested on a single, legendary boast: he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and his fans would still vote for him. And for a long time, the numbers backed him up. No matter what kind of dirt came to light - whether it was his sketchy ties to Jeffrey Epstein, endless internal White House drama, or ethics complaints - his core support stayed rock-solid.

But that absolute immunity seems to be cracking.

Lately, Trump’s poll numbers have been on a steady downward slide. He kicked off his current presidential term with over 50% approval, but recent tracking averages show him tanking hard toward 39%. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll paints an even bleaker picture, putting his support at just 34%.

What makes this slide critical is the timing. It’s happening right as Washington is throwing America’s old international playbook straight into the garbage.

For the past eight decades, the alliance between the US and Europe was treated like holy scripture. Ever since Harry Truman’s famous 1947 speech, the idea was simple: Washington builds a safety net of global clubs - NATO, the UN, the IMF - and everyone plays by the same rules to keep dictators at bay.

The new National Security Strategy document from December completely mocks that legacy. The authors literally put quotes around the phrase "rules-based international order," which foreign policy experts took as a blunt statement that the old globalist era is officially dead.

Vice President JD Vance made this shift crystal clear at the Munich Security Conference. He basically stood on stage and told European leaders that Russia isn't their biggest problem - their own soft, woke culture is. Vance slammed Europe for suppressing speech and breaking democratic norms, which predictably pissed off leaders across the continent. France’s top newspaper, Le Monde, didn't hold back, calling the speech an outright "ideological declaration of war."

The grand plan behind this new strategy is simple: the US is done acting as the world's policeman and global club manager. It’s all about the nation-state now. Karín von Hippel, a former top official at the State Department, noted that America has formally quit its job as the global cheerleader for democratic values.

Of course, conservative think-tanks like The Heritage Foundation say this is just common sense. Victoria Coates argues that the old 1945 system is totally useless now that China is running the show. "We are in a different world," she said.

This aggressive new attitude is playing out across the map. The US is resurrecting a hardline version of the Monroe Doctrine, warning Beijing to stay out of infrastructure deals in Latin America. Yet, when dealing with the Middle East, Washington suddenly preaches "non-interference." It's totally selective—the US follows rules only when it serves American interests, a hypocrisy that analysts like Sir Lawrence Freedman point out has actually been happening for decades.

Unsurprisingly, Europeans have had enough. Data from Oxford University and the ECFR shows that trust in Washington has completely cratered. Most Europeans no longer see the US as a reliable partner; many now view America as a direct rival or even an enemy.

With Washington acting so erratic, countries in the Global South - like Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey - are placing their bets on China instead. Mark Leonard from the ECFR points out that Trump’s erratic foreign policy has essentially driven these nations straight into Beijing's arms.

The weirdest part of the new US strategy is how it plans to deal with Europe internally. Washington is signaling that it will stop nagging authoritarian regimes about human rights if they are useful business partners. Even wilder, the document openly cheers on right-wing "patriotic parties" to rebel against the European Union, while hinting that shifting demographics might totally scramble NATO's future layout.

This has left European leaders panicking and talking up "strategic autonomy"- the pipe dream of defending the continent without American troops. But military chiefs warn that building a real European military would take decades and trillions of dollars.

As one European general put it, Europe is currently stuck in a meat grinder. They are too reliant on the Pentagon to pack up and leave, but they have absolutely no clue if Washington will abandon them tomorrow.

Ultimately, the real fight in Washington right now isn't about domestic approval ratings or political alliances. It’s about the fabric of global reality - whether we live in a world governed by treaties, or a dog-eat-dog system where big countries simply bully whoever they want.

Source: Handelsblatt