France and European partners reshape sixth-generation fighter landscape as SCAF collapses and GCAP seeks expansion

“We will build a new combat aircraft. When? How? With whom we will play? I will keep the information I have with the French authorities to myself. But we are working on it,” he said, in remarks delivered just days after the collapse of Franco-German cooperation on the New Generation Fighter (NGF), the 6th-generation aircraft meant to sit at the core of the Future Combat Air System (SCAF).

While Trappier offered no further detail, industry sources and European defence reporting increasingly point to a possible shift in direction, with the hypothesis of a France–Sweden alignment gaining traction in recent days. The idea has circulated in parallel to the breakdown of the SCAF framework, which had already been under strain for months.

At the same time, Airbus Defence and Space has moved quickly to position itself at the centre of a separate initiative, assembling a consortium known as “Team Gen 6” to develop a German-designed sixth-generation fighter, while also reaching out to Spanish aerospace players. Berlin, however, has not yet formally confirmed its intentions, leaving the project’s political foundation unsettled.

Italy, which is already engaged in the rival Global Combat Air Programme, has also signalled openness to wider cooperation. In an interview with the Financial Times, Lorenzo Mariani said Italy would be “open to the idea that Germany joins GCAP,” arguing that large defence programmes require both capital and industrial expertise.

“I would be delighted if some actors from the German industrial complex joined our activities,” he said, adding that “these programmes are always very demanding in terms of investment… having another partner with both capital and industrial skills would therefore be an asset.”

The GCAP framework, however, is already formally structured. The intergovernmental architecture was set out under the GIGO agreement signed in December 2024, with industrial work organised through the Edgewing joint venture involving BAE Systems, Leonardo, and Japan Aircraft Industrial Enhancement (JAIEC), which brings together Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and other Japanese aerospace firms.

That structure leaves limited room for expansion without reopening complex negotiations over intellectual property, workload distribution and funding. Mariani himself acknowledged as much, referring to the prospect of “intensive negotiations” should Germany or others seek entry.

Funding pressures remain central to the debate. Italy has recently committed around €18.6 billion for the GCAP programme’s design and development phase alone, roughly three times initial estimates. The scale of the investment has strengthened political arguments in Rome in favour of bringing in additional partners to dilute costs.

Yet uncertainty also persists on the British side. Reporting in European media notes that the United Kingdom’s position remains unclear pending the long-delayed Defence Investment Plan (DIP), which has yet to be published. Some outlets have linked the delay to political turbulence in London, including reports of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation, though no unified picture has yet emerged across official channels.

Despite these uncertainties, Leonardo’s chief executive said he does not foresee the GCAP project collapsing. “Air combat is such an important sector for the United Kingdom that it will never abandon this priority,” he said.

Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto has also emphasised the cost logic behind potential expansion. Speaking to reporters on 23 June, he said additional countries could join the programme, with Canada currently showing interest as an observer.

“Whoever seems most interested at the moment is Canada, as an observer. We are completely open,” he said. “If Germany or other countries, or Saudi Arabia, were to enter, we would be fully available, because the more participants there are, the more chances there are to create something and reduce costs.”

Japan, however, remains cautious about widening the consortium. Tokyo’s priority is to avoid delays in delivering the aircraft on schedule, with an in-service target of 2035 aimed at maintaining pace with China’s own rapid advances in next-generation combat aviation.

European media broadly frame the situation as a wider reconfiguration of two competing sixth-generation fighter ecosystems: the Franco-German-led SCAF/NGF programme, which has effectively fractured, and the British–Italian–Japanese GCAP initiative, which is actively seeking new partners while grappling with rising costs and complex governance.

In parallel, France’s industry signals suggest a possible “post-SCAF” pathway, with Dassault maintaining that a next-generation French combat aircraft will emerge regardless of partnership structure, while keeping strategic options open on whether it evolves alongside Sweden or through a more limited European configuration.