Europe's Defence Still Depends on America — and Time Is Running Out

Europe Is Spending More, But Not Yet Standing Alone

European governments have dramatically increased defence spending since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. New procurement programmes, industrial investment and commitments made through NATO all point towards a continent that has finally recognised defence as a long-term political priority.

Yet increased spending has not translated into strategic independence.

Recent assessments from defence analysts and European institutions conclude that Europe's armed forces remain heavily dependent on the United States for capabilities that cannot be replaced quickly. Air defence, long-range precision strikes, strategic airlift, satellite intelligence, logistics, reconnaissance, command systems and nuclear deterrence continue to rely overwhelmingly on American support.

The Capability Gap Runs Deeper Than Equipment

The challenge is not simply purchasing more tanks or aircraft.

For decades, European defence planning assumed that the United States would provide the critical assets required in any major conflict. While European militaries invested in national forces, many of the expensive "strategic enablers" remained concentrated within the US military.

As a result, even countries with modern armed forces often depend on American intelligence networks, satellite surveillance, aerial refuelling aircraft and missile defence systems to conduct sustained operations.

Replacing those capabilities is neither quick nor inexpensive. Analysts estimate that rebuilding a genuinely autonomous European military architecture could require five to ten years of sustained investment and industrial expansion.

Industrial Capacity Has Become a Security Issue

The war in Ukraine exposed another structural weakness: Europe does not produce military equipment fast enough.

Demand for artillery ammunition, air-defence missiles, drones and armoured vehicles has outpaced manufacturing capacity across much of the continent. While defence budgets continue to rise, production bottlenecks, fragmented procurement and lengthy contracting procedures slow the delivery of new capabilities.

The European Defence Agency notes that research and development spending is increasing, but still trails far behind the United States. Cooperation between member states has also improved, though procurement remains largely national rather than genuinely European.

Washington's Strategic Shift Changes the Equation

Europe's growing concern is driven not only by Russia's aggression but also by changing American priorities.

Successive US administrations have gradually shifted strategic attention towards the Indo-Pacific, where competition with China increasingly dominates defence planning. Recent debates inside Washington about reducing military commitments in Europe have reinforced concerns that American support may no longer be guaranteed at previous levels.

The issue is not necessarily a complete US withdrawal from NATO. Rather, European policymakers increasingly recognise that Washington may simply lack the capacity—or political willingness—to remain Europe's primary security provider while simultaneously managing multiple global crises.

Strategic Autonomy Is Becoming a Practical Requirement

For years, "strategic autonomy" was often dismissed as an ambitious political slogan.

Today, it is increasingly viewed as an operational necessity.

Across the EU, initiatives aimed at expanding joint procurement, strengthening defence industries and coordinating military investment are accelerating. Programmes under the European Defence Agency, the European Defence Fund and broader industrial cooperation are intended to reduce duplication and build capabilities that Europe currently imports from abroad.

However, experts warn that higher spending alone will not solve the problem. Without deeper integration, coordinated procurement and long-term industrial planning, Europe risks investing more while continuing to depend on external suppliers.

Europe's Next Defence Test

The coming decade will determine whether Europe can transform its unprecedented defence spending into genuine military capability.

The continent has largely reached political consensus that defence must become a permanent priority. What remains uncertain is whether European governments can move quickly enough to close critical capability gaps before future crises expose them again.

For decades, American military dominance allowed Europe to underinvest in strategic defence. That era is drawing to a close. The challenge now is no longer recognising the dependency—it is replacing it.

Sources: Deutsche Welle, Bruege, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)