El Niño is here:heat, droughts, heavy rains and other extreme phenomena are ahead
Climate phenomenon would rapidly develop into a strong event between July and September.
Europe, which has just experienced a severe heat wave, is again in anticipation. And for good reason.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said the climate phenomenon El Niño would rapidly gain strength, as it warned countries to brace for impact.
Where will it come from
El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific and warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.
When to expect the peak
El Niño typically peaks between November and February.
The WMO's monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update points towards "a rapid development into a strong El Nino event during July-September".
The UN agency classifies El Nino events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, meaning it is set to reach the third-highest level out of four.
El Niño is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe. Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is expected to remain generally warmer than average.
The Global Seasonal Climate Update predicts an overwhelming likelihood of above average temperatures across most land areas between 60°S and 60°N – which covers nearly all populated areas outside Polar regions.
What about the rains
The July–September 2026 rainfall outlook reflects a pattern that is consistent with a strengthening El Niño event.
Enhanced likelihood of above-normal rainfall is forecast across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Below-normal rainfall is more likely across parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia.
Below-normal rainfall is also forecast for parts of Central America, the Caribbean and northwestern South America. In contrast, wetter-than-average conditions are more likely across portions of the southwestern United States.
Across Europe, forecasts suggest a north-south contrast, with increased chances of above-normal rainfall in southern Europe and below-normal rainfall in northern Europe. However, for Europe, forecast confidence remains lower than in many other regions.
How long will this take
The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high at around 1.55C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
While El Nino usually peaks between November and February, the resulting spike in temperatures typically comes later.
"The impacts of El Nino will be felt in different regions until the end of the year and beyond, also during 2027," WMO climate scientist Alvaro Silva said.
The WMO said it was stepping up early warning support to help guide preparedness, especially in climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and health.
Such moves "are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities", said WMO chief Celeste Saulo.
"El Nino conditions are already under way and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event," she said.