Cheese, Wine and Olives : Europe's Heatwave Threatens Iconic Food Prices

Record-breaking heat across Europe in June hits agricultural and livestock production. Producers in Spain, France, Germany and Italy said that olive, wine, cheese production disruptions  were feared.

Olive Oil

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the international price of olive oil hit a record high of $10,281.37 per ton in January 2024. It was the first  summer of extreme heat, when Europe suffered a severe drought. However, the price rebounded again, recovering the $6,000 level this January, and rose to $6,198.30 in June.

The industry suggests that if the heat wave becomes prolonged, olive harvests will deteriorate, potentially making the price increase even steeper.

Heat and War

It is possible that the heatwave will spread across the European cooking oil market. The drought damage to sunflower cultivation areas is intensifying as water levels in the Po River basin, Italy's largest agricultural region, have dropped significantly. As a result, sunflower seed production has decreased, and related imports are reported to have roughly doubled from last year.

The largest sunflower oil exporter to the European Union is Ukraine. Last year supplies decreased due to Russian attacks on logistics infrastructure. Several reservoirs were destroyed in the ports of the Black Sea coast. At the same time, there is even a surplus of seed processing capacity in the country - say local experts. But an intensified wave of strikes reported since April, leading to direct product losses, infrastructure damage and additional costs for companies trying to fulfill export contracts.

According to local analysts at APK-Inform, Russian missile and drone attacks are unlikely to have a significant impact on Ukraine’s overall sunflower oil.

A Hotter World Means More Expensive Milk

Domestic animals really don”t like the heat. Because of  "heat stress" caused by high temperatures, dairy cows produce less milk, pigs grow more slowly, and chickens face a greater risk of mass deaths.

The French Ministry of Agriculture forecast that this heat wave will reduce overall production of grains, livestock products, fruits and vegetables. Reuters also reported that French milk production could fall by 15 to 20%.

If the heat wave is prolonged and local agricultural production declines, raising raw material prices could affect food prices on domestic tables as well.

"Extreme heat impacts milk's quality and quantity," said Nicola Bertinelli, president of the Parmigiano Reggiano Consortium ( Italy) іsaid to Reuters.

Production of authentic Parmigiano Reggiano has existed for more than ​800 years, is only allowed in five provinces, mostly in the Emilia-Romagna region, and cows must be ​fed exclusively with grass and hay grown there.

With temperatures topping 40C (104F), cows spend more time lying ​down, eat less and produce up to 10% less milk, one of the Parmigiano's only three ingredients alongside ⁠salt and rennet.

"If it doesn't rain, grass doesn't grow, hay cannot be produced and it's impossible to obtain ​the milk needed to make the cheese," Bertinelli told Reuters.

Farmers installed fans and water-mist systems, but those  have sent  energy costs soaring.

More than 500,000 wheels of Parmigiano Reggiano, together worth more than €300 million, are stored in the two warehouses operated ​by Credito nit Magazzini Generali delle Tagliate (MGT) in the provinces of Reggio Emilia and Modena. During this year's peak heatwaves,  daily energy consumption rose ‌by about ⁠30%, MGT director Giancarlo Ravanetti said.

The Parmigiano Reggiano industry ⁠generates an ​estimated €4.5 billion ($5.15 billion) in revenue a year, employing thousands and powering the local economy.

Legendary Vineyards Under Threat

Last year heatwaves prompted early harvest across France's vineyards.  Grape harvests are starting on average three weeks earlier than in the 1980s, according to the National Institute for Agricultural, Food and Environmental Research (Inrae).

In Alsace, eastern France, the harvest has never started so early. The harvest of grapes that make the sparkling white wine crémant  in 2026 officially began  10 days ahead of 2024, according to the Winegrowers' Association.

At the Beaunes grape harvest in Burgundy, in recent years Pinot Noir has begun on the 6 September on average.

However, from 1354 up to 1988, this harvest usually took place around 27 September, according to a study cited by Le Monde.

Heat also brings an increase in vine diseases and pests, due to humidity.    Production drops can be drastic – up to 50 percent in the Hérault and Gard departments in southern France in 2019, for example, when grapes were burned by a heatwave. Or as in  August  2025, when several hundred hectares burned in  a  wildfire in Aude, in the south of France.

According to a study published in 2024 in the journal Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, if global warming exceeds +2C compared to the pre-industrial era, 90 percent of coastal and lowland wine regions in southern Europe could be unable to produce quality wine at economically sustainable yields by the end of the century.

Threat to Local Specialties

For now the European Commission has registered more than 3,700 geographical indications (GIs). This helps protect Europe’s rich heritage of food and beverage products.

The geographical indications protect the names of products that are closely linked to a specific place and traditional production methods. They apply to a wide range of agricultural products, foodstuffs, wines and spirit drinks produced in different regions.

On the list are well-known Bayerisches Bier, Champagne, Kalamata olives, Parmigiano Reggiano, Queso Manchego and Roquefort cheese.

Geographical indications generate more than €75 billion in annual sales and account for 15.5% of EU agri-food exports. They support jobs, strengthen small and medium-sized businesses, and help producers secure higher prices for their products.

And they are all threatened by the heat.

"The question is not whether we will reach 50 degrees," climatologist Christophe Cassou told French public television. "It's when."

"For decades we fought like crazy saying Champagne is the name of the place, and you can't produce champagne if it's not made in Champagne," Antoine Poincaré, a climate risk expert and head of the Apave Climate School said.

"And now it's being produced in the south-west of England. So this is the kind of stuff we'll have to let go."

Sources" Reuters, RFI, Apave Climate School, France Télévisions